Showing posts with label alpha traders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label alpha traders. Show all posts

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Alpha Traders Are Busy Buying This Now… You Should Too

Don't Bet On a Continued Dollar Rally...
Especially When Global Markets Are Still Cooking

Alpha Traders
Are Making a Fortune!

New trade recos out this week -- and
I'll guarantee you at least 7 triple-digit winners.
Dear Fellow Investor,

In the last two weeks, the dollar's rallied slightly, but who knows how long that's going to last? What's certain is this...

Right now, global markets are still cooking. If and when the dollar reverses course, that'll provide an extra boost to the tail wind pushing our global stocks.

Which means you could pull in profits of 40% to 100% by picking the right stocks. Which is what the Alpha Traders do day in and day out.

Since March we've closed 6 triple-digit trades and 14 double-digit trades.

And there are plenty more where those came from. Join us today and you won't miss a single one. You could double your money over and over again.

For the biggest profits, follow the best traders. Like the ones in my small group. They're among the best in the world, pulling "off-the-chart" profits for the billions of dollars we manage.

One of these Alpha Traders saw the subprime meltdown coming long before the investing masses, making upwards of 1,000% on one bet. He used a strategy that you could use just as easily as he did -- if anyone would tell you about it.

Another parlayed what he knows about energy markets into profits that are annualizing at an extraordinary 105% for 2009 so far. He's not using exotic trading instruments, which means you could just as easily be racking up gains like his -- if someone would tell you what to do.

As for me, I'm outpacing most of them, with 48% annualized profits for four years.

And I'm here to tell you right now -- our next trades could be just as big. And this time you can be right there too, because I'm going to tell you exactly what we're trading, and when to buy and sell.

The traders who make spectacular profits year in and year out are quietly moving into a handful of stocks, and you're about to discover what they are.

Follow the Alpha Traders to the
Biggest Profits of Your Life


My name is Nicholas Vardy, and I work in the same world of professional traders as the Alpha Traders I'm telling you about.

I came to the world of private money from the mutual fund business, where I managed funds in a group responsible for about $1.2 billion.

Today I run a private investment firm and count among my friends some of the most successful traders in the world.

In fact, members of a strategy-sharing trading group I put together manage about a quarter of all the hedge fund money in Europe.

Our jobs are to create fortunes, taking profits before others even take a position, always staying one step ahead of market turns.

And to do that, we can't wait for just-right market conditions, and we can't jump on top of trades everyone else is making.

To make the kind of profits we're used to -- single trade profits as high as 1,000%, portfolio gains as high as 209% in 2008, and my own 48% annualized returns since starting my trading service in October 2005 -- you need an edge. A private method you don't share with anyone.

And the biggest edge you can have is to trade "developing trends" (I call them shadow trends), like the ones I'll reveal below.

Why the World's Top Traders
Make More Money


Lots of traders go wrong in thinking that specializing in currencies, or commodities, or options, or bonds, or any other investment vehicle gives them an edge.

But when your job is to make big money, there's no such thing as waiting for the market to fit your strategy.

The best traders are more like mechanical engineers, knowing how gears and systems of an entire machine must work in unison to move a vehicle. The best traders look anywhere and everywhere for opportunities.

Whether it's seeing oil prices starting to rise in 2003, China flexing its economic power in 2006, or global telecom take off in 2007, you reap the biggest, most solid profits by watching the gears of the global economy turn and knowing how one small event affects specific investments.

That's why subscribers to my trading service reap steady profits, like:

75% in a global agribusiness ETF in under 2 months
48% in an Chinese financial stock in a little over 90 days
106% in a Russian mining and metals stock in 2 months
150% in a Canadian stock in 150 days
257% in a dry shipper option in 7 weeks
203% in another mining stock option in 2 months
235% in a communications giant option in under 90 days

Even when most investors look at the markets and see nothing but directionless confusion, a void of trading opportunity, Alpha Traders can see events and trends and ride them to spectacular profits.





Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The Global Guru: Gurus and Predictions


IMPORTANT: To ensure delivery to your inbox,
please add Nick_Vardy@TheGlobalGuru.com to your Address Book.
Nicholas Vardy's The Global Guru
December 15, 2009
Vol. 4, No.46


Fellow Investor,

On Gurus and Predictions


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This past week in London, I had to chance to see and speak with a wide range of investment gurus including Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs' head of global economic research, super speculator turned leftist politico George Soros, and perennial free-market maven Steve Forbes. Each guru has a huge following and lot of credibility. Yet, each also represented very distinct, often contradictory views of the world. With an onslaught of so many competing opinions, it's easy to see how you can be overwhelmed by a constant state of "analysis paralysis."

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Of Gurus and Predictions: Goldman Bullish on the Global Economy

Among all of the gurus I saw, it was Jim O'Neill's presentation that focused most on the present state and future prospects for the markets.

Amid all of the doom-and-gloom headlines, O'Neill's view on the global economy and China was surprisingly bullish. All of Goldman Sachs' projections for economic growth for the world's major economies for both 2009 and 2010 were above consensus. Goldman's own (re)calculation of the OECD's index of leading economic indicators suggests that the global economy is well into a "V" shaped recovery that began pretty much when the global financial markets turned up in March. In fact, O'Neill felt that many of the negative economic numbers coming from economies like the United Kingdom would be revised upward over the coming year. What he called his most bullish chart showed that German exports to Asia -- the biggest in the world -- had now not only recovered to pre-crisis levels, but actually had exceeded them. He also was bullish on the U.S. dollar, convinced that the shrinking U.S. current account deficit will lend continuing strength to the Greenback, fiscal nightmares notwithstanding.

Consistent with his previous public announcements, he was extremely bearish on Japan -- a "demographic disaster" -- and even suggested that the United Kingdom's economy could overtake Japan's economy in 30 years' time. And as optimistic as he was about the global economy, he didn't think that even the best-intentioned policy makers could do anything to prevent future financial crises. They are too much of a function of basic human fear and greed.

Of Gurus and Predictions: China Bear

Having coined the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) eight years ago for the world's leading economies in the year 2050, O'Neill was predictably bullish on China. As he pointed out, over the past seven years, China created economic wealth equivalent to two United Kingdoms. When I hear the latest sound bites on China, I am always reminded of the text of an actual investment prospectus from the 19th century for a mining project in Peru: "The virtues of Peru are so well-known they need not be discussed here." No prizes for guessing how that venture ended.

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Given how O'Neill's optimism about China contrasted with my own views that I expressed in last week's Global Guru, I challenged O'Neill on his optimistic scenario. Haven't statistics suggested that China is not getting much bang for its investment buck? He dismissed these statistics as flawed, and based on an overstatement of China's capital stock. What about the giant swathes of empty office towers, ghost cities and bridges to nowhere that dot Chinese cityscapes, I asked him? Not a misallocation of capital, he declared. The single-biggest factor that analysts underestimate in China is urbanization. Every empty office building that China constructs soon will be teeming with recently re-located peasants from the countryside. O'Neill clearly belongs to the "if we build it, they will come" school of thought.

While I am sympathetic long term to O'Neill's optimism, I also know that no single country has ever achieved sustained economic growth without enduring a series of gut-wrenching booms and busts. It is simply historically unprecedented. I also was surprised by his uncritical embrace of Chinese statistics. Perhaps I shouldn't have been. A senior Goldman Sachs economist criticizing the validity of Chinese government statistics would quickly end up on the front page of the next morning's Financial Times. It would certainly not improve Goldman Sachs' business prospects in the Middle Kingdom.

Of Gurus and Predictions: Analysis Versus Making Money

Gurus play an important role in keeping the world's finger on the pulse of financial markets. But it's important to understand that their role is more about providing you with novel perspectives than about necessarily putting money in your retirement account.

Consider the case of "Dr. Doom," NYU professor Nouriel Roubini, who has achieved great notoriety for predicting the economic meltdown. Ironically, Roubini never has claimed to have made any money from his own predictions. He recently hired 17 analysts not for the launch of a huge, multi-billion dollar hedge fund, but for his research company. But kudos to Roubini for knowing his limitations. As Steve Forbes once told me, "it's a lot easier to sell investment advice than to follow it."

I know several other world-class financial gurus who are willing to lend their names to hedge funds run by other people but recognize that they are terrible traders themselves. I once watched one such guru lose $50,000 of his personal money within a few minutes of trading on his Blackberry during my dinner with him. As luck would have it, he made the money back just as quickly -- when his Blackberry rang and he was offered a speaking fee for the same amount. Luckily, this guru recognizes his weakness and does not trade other people's money. In contrast, the single-biggest source of new accounts for my investment firm is another well-known guru who boasts non-stop about "being right" -- yet lost the bulk of his clients' assets in the recent market meltdown.

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In my own trading, I am comforted by the single-most important, yet counterintuitive lesson I have ever learned in investing: that analysis is the least important part of making money in the markets. Making sure you survive by not betting too big and by sticking to your stops is infinitely more important than getting your earnings estimate correct down to the last penny. And this lesson I learned from George Soros, a man whose political leanings I genuinely find perplexing, who observed: "My system doesn't work by allowing me to make valid predictions. It works by allowing me to recognize when I am wrong."

That's why knowing what you don't know can be the single-biggest secret of your long-term investment success.

Sincerely,

Nicholas A. Vardy
Editor, The Global Guru

P.S. Subscribers to Global Stock Investor know that they will be prepared to make money in global financial markets, whether they go up or down. My subscribers made big profits from the bull run in 2009. And they will make big profits on any potential collapse of global markets as well. The key is to have a flexible investment strategy. To find out our current range of picks, sign up for Global Stock Investor today.

P.P.S. To keep up with my most recent views on global markets , sign up on Twitter on @NickVardy.

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