Tuesday, August 11, 2009

The Global Guru: The Silver Lining to a Falling Dollar

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This week's Global Guru features a guest column about the declining value of the U.S. dollar and how investors may want to use that trend to their advantage. Enjoy the guest column by Carla Pasternak, of High-Yield International, and watch for my views about the latest global market trends in next week's Global Guru. --Nicholas Vardy
The Silver Lining to a Falling Dollar
By Carla Pasternak, Editor High-Yield International

I'm pleased to deliver my Global Guru newsletter to you each Tuesday. It's your insider's guide to the hottest global markets and trends the smart money is investing in... and why.

If you'd like to start really profiting from the global markets covered in The Global Guru, then I urge you to consider my monthly newsletter, Global Stock Investor. As a new Global Guru subscriber, you can get as many as 5 FREE Special Reports when you try Global Stock Investor today.

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August 11 , 2009
Vol. 4, No.30

Fellow Investor,

The U.S. national debt sits at more than $11 trillion dollars -- double its total from just 10 years ago. That's so much debt that some are questioning the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.
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But there is a silver lining for income investors. This massive spending, combined with movement out of U.S. Treasuries, is going to take its toll on the dollar, and international income investors could reap the rewards in the form of higher dividends. Read on to see just how much a falling dollar can boost your income stream.

Living in Canada, I see first-hand the impact of the falling U.S. dollar. From 2002-2007, the Canadian dollar soared uninterrupted over its stateside counterpart.

Over that time, it usually cost me less and less to purchase anything in U.S. dollars... whether it be investments or even vacations. Even though I was spending the same amount of money, my Canadian dollar simply went further in the United States.

If you're living in the U.S., don't fret. You can take advantage of the same phenomenon by investing abroad. And if you're an income investor, you'll find that your dividends can soar because of it -- even if the underlying company doesn't raise them a cent.

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From a peak in July 2001 to a low in April 2008, the U.S. Dollar Index fell by a staggering 41%. As world economic growth exploded, investors somewhat shunned the U.S. markets, instead focusing on developing nations with high growth prospects.

Meanwhile, U.S. deficits began to soar at an astounding rate. Public debt ballooned over 50% from $6 trillion in 2000 to over $9 trillion in 2007. As you likely know, heavy debt loads can lead to instability in a company or a country. And with foreign markets booming while the United States racked up more and more debt, entities around the world demanded fewer dollars -- helping lead to its long-term decline.

However, with the onset of the financial crisis, the trend reversed. As economic crisis spread, investors parked cash in still safe-haven U.S. Treasuries to ride out the storm. As a result, during the height of the financial turmoil -- July 2008 and March 2009 -- the U.S. Dollar Index soared 24%.

But now the long-term downtrend seems to be reappearing as the fundamental reasons for the dollar's prior decline have been dramatically amplified in recent months. The U.S. government has been borrowing and spending like never before. The Obama administration estimates budget deficits will soar to $1.84 trillion in 2009 and $1.26 trillion in 2010.

And as panic from the financial crisis has waned, dollars are flowing out of dollar-denominated assets like Treasuries and into foreign investments once again -- even though some of those foreign countries have debt loads and credit ratings that are worse than the United States'. The U.S. Dollar Index has already fallen 10% since March, and that's good news if you're investing abroad for income.

Falling Dollar = Higher Income

By investing abroad, you'll see your dividends increase in dollar terms as the U.S. dollar falls.

For example, between July 2001 and April 2008 the dollar lost -46% of its value relative to the euro. Let's say over that time a European stock paid 5 euros a year in dividends. In 2001, you would have received just US$4.20 in exchange. But after the dollar fell, that same 5 euro payment would be converted to US$8.00 in 2008 -- an increase of over 90%, even though the actual payment didn't increase by one cent.

Investing abroad isn't as exotic as it sounds, either. Many foreign companies trade right on the NYSE. They simply make dividend payments in their native currency and then translate them over to dollars for U.S. investors. In addition, several full-service and discount brokers offer direct access to foreign exchanges denominated in foreign currencies.

Either way you go, as the dollar declines, your income and the value of your dividends will increase in dollar terms. And given how enormous deficits and continued foreign investment will take their toll on the dollar, this boost could happen sooner rather than later.

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If you want to take advantage of the falling dollar, you might like the Brazilian energy giant I'm looking at right now... it already yields a whopping 7.8% based on payments totaling about US$3.70 in the past year. And over the past four months, the dollar has fallen about 20% against the Brazilian real. If that continues, you'll see even higher payments from this stock in dollar terms.

My first issue of High-Yield International was just released. In it, I share some of my favorite ways to turn the falling dollar in your favor, including the Brazilian energy giant I just mentioned. You'll also find a Taiwanese tech play yielding 9.5, a rare Mexican monopoly yielding 13.4%, and my list of 10 "Star Performers" yielding up to 19.0%. You can get all of this in my first issue now, just follow this link.

Good investing!

Carla Pasternak, Editor High-Yield International

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P.P.S. The constantly changing market environment continues to present investors with some of the most challenging times in recent history. Not since the Industrial Revolution has the financial landscape seen such major shifts in how wealth is held today. The MoneyShow is the only forum where you'll meet, hear from, and find out how to profit from leading experts. Join me at this year's MoneyShow San Francisco, August 21-23, 2009, at the San Francisco Marriott, where I will address some of the most pressing issues facing us today and introduce you to the newest and most successful tools and strategies for managing your portfolios in these challenging times. I urge you to attend and I look forward to meeting you personally. Register FREE by calling 800/970-4355 (priority code 014319) or by going online at The MoneyShow San Francisco!

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