Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Did You Know About How Easy Reverse Cell Phone Lookup Is?

Reverse Cell Phone Lookup

We’ve all received phone calls from numbers we didn’t recognize. Sometimes you may miss calls, and you want to speak to the person again. Sometimes you may want to figure out how to make sure they never call you again.

No matter why you want to know more information about the call, you can use reverse cell phone lookup on to find what you want to know.

Why do a Reverse Cell Phone Lookup?

With a reverse cell phone lookup, you’ll be able to find at least the name and address of the person calling you which means you can find other ways of contacting them if necessary. That means you can also find answers if you’re worried about a cheating spouse, a prank caller, and more.

While a reverse cell phone lookup can be beneficial in many ways, to really reap the benefits, you need to select a service to use carefully. Free reverse phone lookup services will provide you the information you need, but they aren’t good for anything other than landline numbers. You won’t be able to find out anything about cell phone or unlisted numbers, and that leaves out lots of possibilities.

Is Free Really Free?

Instead, you should consider using When you use our site, you’ll actually be able to perform reverse cell phone lookups because we actually do have directories that include mobile numbers. You won’t find mobile numbers at free sites, because these mobile directories have to be assembled manually - and that’s a very time-consuming and expensive process.

To recoup the costs involved, fees have to be charged. Landline numbers, on the other hand, are freely available in the public domain and are simple to collect and organize in a directory.

After you’ve decided to use, your next step is to sign up and complete your registration. At Reverse Phone Detective, the registration process is very straightforward and quick.

Get More for Your Money with

Once you’ve taken care of the details, all you need to do to start your reverse cell phone lookup is enter the number, including both the area code and the seven digit number. When you hit “Search,” the system will start to match your number with one of the millions of records in the Reverse Phone Detective database (other sites often promise cell phone records, but only include glorified link directories).

In seconds, you’ll have your results, along with access to expanded people search databases. One of the best things about using is that we offer customers a 100% guarantee – you get results, or you don’t pay. It’s as simple as that!

The bottom line is that by picking the right service for your reverse cell phone lookup –
- you’ll end up finding the information you want, and get more than you bargained for in the deal! Click here to visit the official website.




Lieberman to Oppose Public Option, Back GOP Filibuster

Breaking from

Lieberman Will Back GOP Filibuster Opposing Public Option
Sen. Joe Lieberman says he will back a GOP filibuster of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's healthcare reform bill because of its inclusion of a "public option" — a devastating blow to the Obama administration's hopes of unified Democratic support for a healthcare bill with a government-run insurance program.
Read the Full Story — Go Here Now

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Read This Before You Get a Swine Flu Shot!

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Taipan Daily: Planet Real Versus Planet Paper – My Biggest Lesson of 2009

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Wed., October 28, 2009
Taipan Daily: Planet Real Versus Planet Paper – My Biggest Lesson of 2009
by Justice Litle, Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group

“Essentially, all models are wrong – but some are useful.” That noted quote comes from Dr. George E.P. Box, a grand old man of science and statistics.

It can be disconcerting to embrace the idea that “all models are wrong.” Especially when the insight comes from a legendary statistician!

It makes sense, though, because useful models are simple by definition. Think of a map. What you really need from a good city map is the layout of intersections and streets. A certain level of detail is okay, and even useful. But the more detail that gets added, the more cluttered the map becomes. A map that tried to do too much would cease to become useful at all.

In this sense, the map is “wrong” because it doesn’t give a 100% accurate picture. But, oddly, it is wrong on purpose. It has a very specific purpose and intent, and intentionally leaves things out.

Market models – that is to say, different analogies, metaphors, and ways of observing or thinking about the market – are similar. Like a good city map, the right market model can be extremely useful in terms of aiding trading and investing decisions.

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In the spirit of continuous improvement, your editor is always seeking to refine, improve and upgrade his market models. Sometimes this means a small change. Sometimes it means a big change. Sometimes it means discarding a model entirely, or coming up with something entirely new.

In that context, here is one of your editor’s most important lessons learned in 2009...

“Real” and “Paper” Are Different Worlds

Let’s break down the insight in market model terms.

To begin, when it comes to trading and investing, there is the “real” economy and the “paper” economy. The real economy represents what is really and truly happening – the cut and thrust of Main Street, of jobs and wages, of boots on the ground and day-to-day life. The paper economy, in contrast, tracks what’s happening on Wall Street (as reflected in equities, bonds, commodities and currencies).

One can break out the two as follows:

Key Drivers for the “Real” Economy

Key Drivers for the “Paper” Economy

  • Jobs, Wages and Unemployment
  • Liquidity Levels
  • Debt Loads/Balance Sheet Quality
  • Investor sentiment
  • Trade Balances
  • The “Expectations Game”
  • Main Street (small business and consumers)
  • Wall Street (megabanks, connected interests)
  • Realistic Long-Term Outlook
  • Idealized Short-Term Outlook
  • Negative Government Impact
  • Positive Government Impact
  • Looking at the factors listed in the table above, it is easy to say, “Duh.” None of these factors are especially new. In fact we’ve talked about them all at one time or another.

    But sometimes major realizations are subtle. The market model shift is not always dramatic. Sometimes a small adjustment leads to a game-changing insight.

    It is a further irony that big breakthroughs often have a whiff of “duh” to them. This is because a truly useful insight is, more often than not, simple. And sometimes the gain is in reweighting priorities – changing the recipe without changing the ingredients, so to speak.

    In this case, the gist could be summed up like this: The real economy and the paper economy are not just “different,” they are different worlds... and thus should be thought about separately and distinctly.

    Back to the mental model thing again...

    Think of two planets, one slightly larger than the other. These two planets have a relationship. Each holds the other within a mutual gravitational pull.

    But, because the relationship is not stable, the distance between the planets changes over time. When there is convergence, the planets move closer to each other. When there is divergence, they move apart.

    One of these is “Planet Real.” The other is “Planet Paper.” And thus, if it sometimes seems that the “Real” folks are living on a different planet than the “Paper” folks... that’s because it is more or less true.

    A Sharp Disagreement

    This market model – seeing “real” and “paper” as distinct worlds to be analyzed separately – is controversial for a number of reasons. Those who embrace standard economic theory, for one, would reject such a model entirely.

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    Standard theory says that the real economy and the paper economy are very closely linked... that the stock market is both a barometer of health for the real economy and a leading indicator for the real economy’s future direction... and that the main purpose of the market is to allocate capital, i.e. to funnel cash to worthy enterprises and thus aid the real economy.

    Your editor has always been skeptical of academic types. As a result of all that’s happened in 2009, his skepticism has morphed into full-on rejection of these common assertions put forth in grad school finance classes. In other words:

    • Equity markets are NOT reliable leading indicators as to the health or future direction of the real economy. This would be far more true in an unmanipulated, ungamed free market system, but that is not what we have.

    • The primary function of equity markets is NOT efficient allocation of capital (getting investment dollars to businesses that need them). Again, this is the market’s hypothetical function in a free market system. But to the degree that the system is gamed, subject to intervention and coercion, this assertion is not true.

    • Efficient market theory has little basis in empirical observation. Why “should” the markets be efficient? Just because academia says they are? Just because we want them to be? Why “should” the markets be rational allocators of capital, when strong influences make them otherwise?

    • The “manipulated market” charge is easily supported by visible evidence, and does not require an embrace of conspiracy theory to be shown true. The evidence for efficient markets doesn’t really exist. But the evidence for manipulated markets is plain as day. We see it in the government’s actions. We see it in central bank officials’ openly stated intent. We see it in the actions and disclosures of the major Wall Street players. In other words, we observe evidence of legally sanctioned manipulation most everywhere we look.

    • The major benefactors of the “paper” economy are incentivized to make large short-term profits... NOT to sustain logical market valuations. What are equities truly worth? What should they be worth? What is a sober and rational valuation for the market? The streetwise answer is, “Who cares???” That isn’t what the game is about. Economics is supposed to be all about incentives, and yet economists refuse to make the obvious connection. It seems plain that the mutually overlapping incentives of Washington and Wall Street favor markets going as high as the gamers can take them. This has nothing to do with rational valuation. When it comes to incentives for the paper crowd, the real economy is a restraint rather than a guide.

    Where the Rubber Meets the Road

    So what is the point of all the above in terms of hard-nosed trading and investing? How does this distinction between “real” and “paper” apply to protecting and building wealth?

    First, thinking about the “real” economy and the “paper” economy separately can help avoid a number of future pitfalls. If one recognizes that there is a direct correlation between government intervention and market distortion, then one will be more likely to take positive “paper” results with a grain of salt (being aware of how quickly such gains can be spirited away). This realization could lead to better hedging techniques or other methods of protecting near-term capital gains.

    What’s more, we are set up to see a LOT of government intervention in the coming years. Not just in the United States, but in Europe, China and elsewhere. 2009 may have only been a preview in that respect.

    So the sooner one realizes that such intervention will lead to ever greater market distorting effects, the better... especially when tempted by the analysis of those who present the goings on of the real economy and the paper economy as if they are the same (or otherwise more tightly coupled than they really are).

    On the flip side – and this is where your humble editor eats a plateful of crow – distinguishing between the two worlds can also help one avoid the trap of being prematurely gloomy in regard to the nominal direction of asset prices. The moneyed interests driving the paper economy can be extremely powerful... so powerful that they can present the illusion of stocks going up, even as the real (inflation-adjusted) value goes down.

    Those who were bearish and cynical from the March lows (including yours truly) were, ironically, not cynical enough.

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    Opportunity and Turmoil

    For many of us, it is a game that must be played (and a game that can still be quite fun, albeit dirty). When Wall Street and Washington have the ability to majorly impact your nest egg for the worse – and when most every central banker in the world is playing some version of the same game – there is no real way to opt out.

    The alternative, then, is to “game the gamers” and set about making as much money as possible (what trading and investing is all about). In that respect, the “two worlds” model represents the presence of both opportunity and turmoil.

    Think about the convergence and divergence idea again. Sometimes the planets (paper versus real) are rapidly increasing their distance from each other. But then gravity’s pull reasserts itself, causing the planets to reverse course and converge with frightening speed.

    This is analogous to the swings between inflationary and deflationary sentiment we can expect moving forward, perhaps for a number of years. Government intervention and Nash-Equilibrium-style market movements will lead to euphoria, i.e., divergence, as Planet Paper moves away from Planet Real. But then the artificial boosters will run out of gas (as happened time and again with Japan), and the two planets will violently recouple.

    For your editor, there will be many trickle-down impacts from this adjustment. Not least will be the conviction to never again confuse the natures of “Planet Real” and “Planet Paper”... sometimes converging but never the same, with distinct and separate drivers for each.

    Warm Regards,


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    Saying "No" to Your Right to Know

    The Newt Gingrich Letter
    Newt Gingrich
    October 28, 2009 | Vol. 4, No. 43

    Saying "No" to Your Right to Know
    By Newt Gingrich and Nancy Desmond
    "I'm going to have all the negotiations around a big table. We'll have the negotiations televised on C-SPAN, so that people can see who is making arguments on behalf of their constituents and who are making arguments on behalf of the drug companies or the insurance companies."

    — Barack Obama, August, 2008
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    As we write, a small group of White House officials and three senators are huddled in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-Nev.) office deciding what kind of health care you and your family will be allowed to have.

    Major policy decisions, such as whether or not there will be a government run "public" option, are being made. Backroom deals are being cut – all in secret. No C-SPAN cameras allowed.

    If you think you should have a voice in this process, there is a place to make your voice heard. Just visit

    What Did Liberals Learn From the Townhalls?
    Shut Out the Troublemakers

    It's not like Americans have been apathetic about the future of our health care. Since this process began, we've demanded to know what is happening.

    Last summer, Americans filled townhall meetings, many armed with copies of the 1000+ page bill that had been filed in the House – a bill that most lawmakers had never read.

    And the more we learned, the less we supported the Pelosi Plan.

    But what did Speaker Pelosi and the other supporters of liberal health care reform learn? How did they decide to use this input from the American people?

    After August, Liberals Were More Determined Than
    Ever to Ram Through a Bill

    Some began cancelling town hall meetings. Others actually carded people in the audience to make sure they lived in their district. Still others began verbally chastising the citizens who asked questions.

    Upon their return to Washington, it was clear that they had discounted what they heard at the town hall meetings. It was as if their meetings with the American people had never happened.

    They were more determined than ever to ram through legislation.

    Democrats Blocked an Attempt to Require That
    Bills Be Posted Online

    In the Senate, the Finance Committee decided to pass a vague proposal – containing no legislative details or cost analysis – and allow no opportunity for the American people or their elected representatives to know what was being considered until after it was done.

    During the process, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) introduced an amendment to require that all bills be publicly available for 72 hours with legislative text and an official budget analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) prior to being considered.

    The Democrats blocked the amendment, never allowing it to get fair and full consideration by the Senate, even though eight Senate Democrats supported the requirement. Senators Bayh (Ind.), Lincoln (Ark.), Pryor (Ark.), McCaskill (Mo.), Landrieu (La.), Nelson (Neb.), Lieberman (Conn.) and Webb (Va.), should be commended for later contacting the leadership urging them to support the change.

    "When We Come Back In September, I Will be Available to
    Answer Any Question That Members of Congress Have"

    It appears clear that the decision has been made to ignore the promise President Obama made to worried Americans in the summer of 2008 and again last July when he declared:

    "So I just want everybody to know, Congress will have time to read the bill. They will have time to debate the bill. They will have all of August to review the various legislative proposals. When we come back in September, I will be available to answer any question that members of Congress have. If they want to come over to the White House and go over line by line what's going on, I will be happy to do that."

    It is unfortunate that the Democratic leadership has decided it would be easier to rush their legislation through rather than honoring the people's right to know.

    Then again, maybe that choice is all Americans need to know when judging the Democrats' healthcare bill.

    Go to to Make Your Voice Heard

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    President Obama has failed to deliver on his repeated promises of transparency and openness.

    But that doesn't mean that we have to silently accept a government health care bill that was negotiated in secret and paid for with deals cut with special interests using our tax dollars.

    Please sign the Center for Health Transformation's (CHT) petition at click here, to tell Washington that We The People demand that all bills be publicly available, including legislative language and accurate budget analysis, at least 72 hours prior to any vote by Congress or committees in Congress.

    There's still time to make your voice heard.

    "60 Minutes" Takes On Medicare and Medicaid Fraud

    The correspondent announced the report with the warning that "it might raise your blood pressure."

    He was right. Last Sunday night, CBS's "60 Minutes" ran a not-to-be-missed expose of something that the Center for Health Transformation has been warning about for months: The unbelievable amount of fraud taxpayers are footing the bill for in the Medicare and Medicaid programs.

    "60 Minutes" estimates that an amazing $90 billion in spending on these programs each year is due to fraud. That's right in line with what CHT's Jim Frogue and I report in our book Stop Paying the Crooks.

    For more on CHT's campaign to fight Medicare and Medicaid fraud, click here.

    To watch the "60 Minutes" report, click here.

    Your friends,
    Newt Gingrich
    Newt Gingrich and Nancy Desmond

    Newt's Quick Links:

    Newt Gingrich is the Founder of the Center for Health Transformation and Nancy Desmond is the Center's Chief Executive Officer and President.

    • We had a great launch week for To Try Men's Souls, our new book telling the tale of Washington leading his men across the Delaware and attacking the Hessian outpost in Trenton, with book signings in Long Island, Dallas, and Naples as well as a live reenactment of the Battle on Twitter (a "twitternactment").

    • Today, I'm in Greensboro, N.C., for a book signing and Newport Beach, Calif., tomorrow. Visit to learn find out where and learn more about the book.

    • The Americano was invited to a bloggers bunch on to discuss Latino in America. Watch and tell us what you think
    Newt Gingrich Real Change

    Tuesday, October 27, 2009

    In Support of Indoctrination…

    Radio Television alt= Fusion
    Follow Glenn on Twitter Follow me on Facebook

    Welcome to Indoctrination Tuesday!

    Order the book now!

    Watch the trailer…

    I've gotten so sick of complaining about other people's books targeting our kids that I figured I'd just write my own. But instead of hidden messages about global warming, universal healthcare, and greedy corporations, I filled my book with messages about controversial things like family, faith and forgiveness.
    When we adapted this book from my #1 New York Times bestseller "The Christmas Sweater" I had three big requirements:
    1. Keep it short. I have four kids and have spent endless hours reading to them at night. While I wouldn't give that up for anything, I've always appreciated books on the shorter side just in case it's one of those "Daddy, read it again!" nights.
    2. Keep it clean. As I said, I hate having to pre-read a children's book to make sure it doesn't subliminally vilify capitalism, glorify communism, or justify terrorism. You have my word that this book does none of those things.
    3. Keep it pretty. Watch the video for a sneak preview of the amazing illustrations done by our artist, Brandon Dorman. I was going for a look that was reminiscent of my childhood and I think he nailed it.

    "The Christmas Sweater: A Picture Book" is the first product we've ever created for your use in indoctrinat—I'm sorry, teaching, your children. I hope you have as much fun reading it to them as we had creating it.

    Glenn Beck Program

    The Boomer $10 Trillion Riptide

    Andrew Gordon Reporting: Baltimore, MD. Tuesday October 27, 2009

    The Baby Boomers' $10 Trillion Riptide

    When my kids Nick and Rachie were growing up, my wife used to joke with them: "Okay, which one of you will take us in when we're old and grey?" "I will." "No, I will." Both wanted to be their parents' keeper ... God bless them.

    But the last thing we want is to have to move in with our children. And when I say that, I think I can speak for all of my fellow boomers too.

    Boomers who have not yet secured their financial future don't have much time left. Many have retired or will be retiring soon. But they do have one remaining weapon: a $10 trillion riptide that will be coursing through the U.S. financial system.

    It's going to catch a lot of investors by surprise. But those who know what it is and know it's coming can make a lot of money from it.

    Boomer Power!

    For the last 50 years, boomers have been pouring cash into their favorite products and causes. In fact, they've been the dominant commercial force in the U.S. since 1946.

    The flow of cash began with the parents of boomers. They spent liberally on their children – on everything from Gerber foods to hula-hoops – before the boomers themselves took over. The boomers then helped themselves to ever-bigger houses, cars, and TVs. They grew addicted to the convenience of fast food, cellphones, and indoor malls. And they cemented the reputations of iconic brands – from Coke to Jack, T-Bird to Cadillac, and Kleenex to Clorox.

    With boomer patronage, businesses grew into giant global companies, and their share prices grew accordingly.Companies favored by boomers like Coke, Clorox, McDonald's, and Brown-Forman (maker of Jack Daniels) have all gone up around 2,000 percent in just the past 25 years.

    Making the Money Last

    Now, boomers are scared that they'll outlive their nest eggs. A research report from BlackRock indicates that 70 percent of their retirement-age clients would be willing to move their accounts to another firm, if that firm could help them avoid running out of money.

    Boomers can't afford any more losses. They have no choice but to play it safe. That's why I expect that riptide – at least $10 trillion of boomer money – to flood into conservative investments like bonds and the big companies the boomers helped build. Investments in those "boring" companies would give the boomers some much-needed cash income and stretch out their savings.

    "On Wall Street there have always been only two basic ways to make money… the second, and seemingly preferred method, exploit those who know less than you -- and take their money." - Dylan Ratigan, MSNBC anchor

    It's time you take advantage of what Dylan says is the first basic way to make money on Wall Street: be a great investor.

    Ted Peroulakis, a Wall Street veteran, wants to help you become a great investor. Since June his readers have received an alert to closeout a triple-digit winner an incredible 11 times!

    There have been seven 100% winners, along with gains of 112%, 116%, 116%, and an eye-popping 194%.

    To learn more about joining Ted and grabbing the next 100% winner, click here.

    Playing It Safe With the Best of the Big Global Companies

    The best of the boring big companies are in my "Elite 88." These companies hate to disappoint their shareholders. And they've been raising their dividends year in and year out, doubling those payments every 5-10 years. Four percent becomes 8 percent, 8 percent becomes 16 percent, and so on. It adds up to astonishing sums. In just two decades, these companies gave enormous profits to shareholders ...

    • Coca-Cola – 9,350%
    • IBM – 2,056%
    • 3M – 2,216%
    • Procter & Gamble – 4,732%

    For more than half a century, businesses and individuals have been making money by tapping into boomer trends and lifestyle choices. Boomers have one last trend in them. And that gives you one last chance to climb aboard the boomer bandwagon.

    If you're interested in the "Elite 88," you can find out more about them in the Sound Profts investment service. Just click here.

    Gold Stocks' Next Big Breakout

    I don't know anybody who knows more about gold and gold stocks than Rusty McDougal, who runs IDE's The Resource Speculator.

    He says gold stocks are going up. No doubt about it.

    And when they do, he expects them to rise between 20 percent and 30 percent over a 3-4 day period. Some will double.

    That doesn't give you much time to take action.

    You can learn more about the explosive opportunities in the gold market and Rusty's service here.

    The Banks' $3 Trillion Payback

    Home sales in the Hamptons are rising. They surged 32 percent in the third quarter. Detroit's sales are dropping like a lead balloon. Anything surprising here?

    The industrial powerhouse that once was America is no more. Say good-bye to "What's good for GM is good for the country." Say hello to "What's good for Wall Street is good for the country." The government gave out hundreds of billions of dollars to save our big banks. And now bankers are making big bonuses again ... and again buying mansions in the Hamptons.

    The eventual bill to American taxpayers will climb into the trillions, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. They say: "The amount of working capital you'd expect the government to take into this would be around $3 trillion to $4 trillion."

    The government took over GM and dismissed its CEO. It gave strict orders to Detroit's "Big 3" to shrink. So far, GM has let go over 21,000 workers.

    Meanwhile, central bank money is almost free. Big banks are helping themselves to dollops. They're doing more trading than lending with it. And their profits have surged. Can't argue with the bottom line, can we?

    U.S. carmakers got a one-month buying surge in August from the clunker program. Sales in September were horrible.

    The Obama government has already decided not to limit the size of banks. And at the first sign of trouble, the government will have their backs. But remember what happened when two of the big three auto companies got into trouble? They were allowed to go into Chapter 11.

    Getting the picture?

    The big banks own Washington lock, stock, and barrel. Coddled and protected by the government, they have all the juice. And the auto industry is getting squeezed.

    IDE's Ted Peroulakis thinks it stinks. But that didn't prevent him from betting on the financial sector at the beginning of earnings season. And he made a cool 100 percent profit for subscribers of Options Power Trader. For how you can participate in Ted's other options plays, click here.

    Invest Safely,

    Andrew Gordon

    Investor's Daily Edge

    We want your feedback! Let us know your thoughts on this article. Email us at Email:

    Market Window

    Bob Irish - Investment Director
    Andy Gordon - Editor
    Jon Herring - Editorial Contributor
    Ted Peroulakis - Editorial Contributor
    Christian Hill - Managing Editor
    Dr. Russell McDougal - Editorial Contributor
    Steve McDonald - Editorial Contributor
    Michael Masterson - Consulting Editor

    Economic Correction Disease; Byron King on the Risks that Come Along With Peak Oil

    Celebrating A Decade of Reckoning
    US Edition Home Contributors Media & Testimonials archives DR's 10th Anniversary DR's 10th Anniversary
    The Daily Reckoning
    Tuesday, October 27, 2009

  • Dollar down, gold up...and other apparent oddities in the markets,
  • How far off is $700 oil? Our resident geologist drills into the data,
  • Plus the swine flu "emergency," frisking grandma and plenty more...
  • ---------------------------------------------------------------

    From Buenos Aires, Argentina, Bill Bonner reports...

    It's a delight to be back in Buenos Aires. It's springtime. The sun is shining. The birds are singing in the trees. What more can you ask for?

    Another national emergency! Terrorism...the banking Swine Flu.

    Why it is an emergency, we don't know. Our sister, living in Virginia tells us that several of her grandchildren have come down with the Swine Flu. It doesn't seem to bother them anymore than any other flu.

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    But every emergency is an opportunity. The feds don't want to waste it. Instead, they swing into operation with a rescue plan. It will end up costing billions...hundreds of billions...or maybe even trillions. We don't know what they've got in mind. But we know what will come of it. It will end up extending the power and influence of the government. So far, the feds are the only real winners from any of these crises. Federal outlays, as a percentage of GDP have shot up from less than 20% of GDP in 2000 to more than 26% in 2009.

    Will it do any good? Public health is not central banking. And it's not economic planning. Force everyone to wear a surgical mask and maybe lives would be spared. Or, maybe not. Without the immunity of occasional bouts of flu, who knows? Maybe people would be more susceptible to the next disease. The American Indians were almost wiped out...because they had no immunity to European diseases.


    Ain't nature amazing? Disease works like an economic correction. It winnows out the weak...and it toughens up survivors. Allowing people to get sick is a little like allowing them to go broke. It keeps the whole system from softening up...from becoming more vulnerable. It protects people from moral and biological hazard. In other words, it's the correction that really provides protection...the disease itself, not the cure. Or, to put it another way, it's the crash that is beneficial, not the rescue.

    David Einhorn, one of the few people to make money in the crash of sub- prime debt:

    "The financial reform on the table is analogous to our response to airline terrorism by frisking grandma and taking away everyone's shampoo. It gives the appearance of 'doing something' and adds to our bureaucracy without really making anything safer."

    The Wall Street Journal reports that even bankruptcy can be a good thing. "Household Debt Can Hasten Recovery...when it goes unpaid," says a headline.

    The whole idea of a correction is to wash out mistakes. If people can pay their debts down, the mistakes are corrected. The system is strengthened. If they can't, the process of correction can happen faster. Bad debts are written off quickly. Then, a real recovery can begin. Either way, the system comes back in better shape.

    Too bad the feds are getting in the way!

    A decent correction should carry off those who made the biggest mistakes - in the present case, the firms on Wall Street that wagered billions on a bigger and bigger bubble. But instead of letting them go broke, the feds rewarded them.

    Wall Street profits are a 'gift' from the state, says George Soros.

    But wait, what kind of gift is this? If you give $100 to your neighbor, that's a gift. But what if you tax your neighbor on the left $100 in order to give the money to your neighbor on the right? That's a gift too...but of a special kind. You're 'redistributing the wealth,' you might say.

    And what if you do a quantitative easing? You know, you print up a $100 bill and give it to your neighbor? That's a gift too.

    Yeah, thanks a lot.

    Meanwhile, the recession is said to have come to an end in the US. GDP growth is positive, say the papers. But if this is a recovery, let's hope it comes to an end soon.

    Existing house prices continued to fall in September.

    Unemployment continued to worsen. "Signs of recovery don't extend to jobs," says the WSJ.

    More thoughts on the state of the empire below but first, today's essay...

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    The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: How far off is $700 per barrel oil...and what might that mean for a global economy addicted to it? If the credit crisis gave Mr. and Mrs. Main Street anything to cheer about it was cheaper gas station visits. But, with oil touching an intra-day high of over $81 per barrel yesterday, any permanent reprieve at the pump looks unlikely.

    In today's column Byron King, editor of Outstanding Investments and The Energy & Scarcity Investor, gives you the inside scoop on where oil is likely headed from here...

    Peak Oil - The Risks
    By Byron King
    Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

    Eighty-five million barrels a day.

    That's the world's current production of crude oil...and that may very well be close to the world's PEAK production of crude oil. Although the recession caused a temporary decrease in consumption, demand is already bouncing back toward pre-crisis levels. Too bad production isn't.

    "Can't we get more than 85 million barrels?" some folks are bound to wonder. Let's look into that...

    A couple weeks ago, I attended the 2009 international conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), out in Denver. Here's the long and short of it. We're in trouble. With a capital "T," and that rhymes with "P," and that stands for Peak Oil. By every measure, the world's output of crude oil peaked between 2005 and 2007.

    Yes, the worldwide total output of what we generically call "oil" has risen - slightly - in recent years. But that's because there are increasing volumes of natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the mix, plus unconventional oil like what the global marketplace obtains from Canada's oil sands. But the production of oil - actual oil - has peaked already. The future of conventional petroleum output is downhill, even with the future output from the deep-water offshore discoveries.

    Unconventional Hydrocarbons

    "There's no such thing as West Texas Intermediate [WTI] oil anymore," Peak Oil apologist, Matt Simmons, moaned to the ASPO conference attendees. Instead, the pipeline crossroads like Cushing, Okla., have become little more than "crude oil pharmacies."

    In other words, as the quality of the crude from the traditional U.S. oil patch continues to degrade, oilmen must mix and match their product with "sweeter" forms of crude if they hope to sell it as the premium- priced WTI. Thus, operators at Cushing take whatever oil they can obtain from one place, plus whatever oil they can obtain from another place. They mix and match, and blend it all with synthetic crude from Canada. Maybe they add some imported oil juice and then send it down the line as WTI.

    Along these same lines, Venezuelan economist Carlos Rossi stated to ASPO his analysis of oil trends in the U.S. "You are worried about your foreign oil imports now," he said. "You in the U.S. import about 65% of your oil today. You don't like it. But if you follow the clear trends, by 2025, you'll be importing about 92% of your oil. You'll like that even less." No doubt.

    The market meltdown and world recession of the past year has bought some time. But the planet is still staring at an energy problem that's coming down the tracks like a runaway freight train.

    Sure, there's a lot more oil "out there" in WAY out there - 150 miles offshore, beneath 8,000 feet of water and 20,000 feet of rock and salt. Yes, that offshore resource is out there, but it's super hard to extract.

    And so what? Aren't the world's oil companies busy developing these massive offshore deposits? Yes, but this development will take decades. It'll take time and capital and expensive cutting-edge technologies, some of which are barely commercially viable.

    Future energy supplies have never been more uncertain, according to Simmons. It's difficult to say with specificity how bad things are, he says, because the data are so poor on a worldwide basis.

    "Look at what happened with the bad information we had, or didn't have, with the financial institutions over the past couple of years," Simmons said at the recent ASPO Conference. "With our energy data, it's worse. We're in for some shocks that will change our lives in ways that'll rival Pearl Harbor."

    Things could go wrong with energy supplies in any of a dozen places, according to Mr. Simmons. In Venezuela, the output of the state oil company PdVSA is declining at alarming rates due to political interference and underinvestment. In Nigeria, the low-grade civil war could quickly morph into a large-scale civil war. In Iraq, according to Mr. Simmons, "They're in the dark about how to rebuild their oil industry."

    Closer to home, Simmons expects net oil exports from Mexico to vanish within 24 months or less. This event will play havoc with U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast. Mexico has simply delayed for too long its effort to explore, drill and rebuild its fast-depleting oil resources. Mexico is going to have to scramble to salvage something from its looming energy disaster.

    Actual and Predicted Crude Oil Production

    But even without a supply shock, Simmons believes that the mere inevitability of declining production will cause oil to hit $200 a barrel by the end of next year. Longer term, Mr. Simmons expects to see oil at $500-700 per barrel. "People need to understand how expensive it is to obtain oil," said Simmons.

    Much of the world's energy infrastructure is old and rusting and will require several trillions of dollars to replace - if it can be replaced. Furthermore, new technology is coming on line slower than most people anticipate. The deeper, more challenging environments are sucking down technology and money, and yielding less than expected in many cases. According to one study, only eight out of 100 major energy projects came in on time, were within budget and yielded the expected volumes of oil and natural gas.

    The stark fact is that oil is going to get a lot more expensive and the bull market in oil will be firmly in place for a long time. Smart investors would take advantage of any corrections or dips to get themselves buckled-in for the ride.


    Byron King,
    for The Daily Reckoning

    P.S. Despite this dark vision from Matt Simmons, subscribers to my Outstanding Investments newsletter are well positioned to profit going forward in the OI portfolio. I've been aware of the energy predicament for more years than I care to recall. Whether or not you can get excited about oil over $500 a barrel will depend on which side of the trade you'll be when it happens.

    ---- Major News Outlet Calls This the "Next Crisis"... ----


    America on the mend? HORSE HOCKEY!

    Here's what's real: Brace yourself for what's about to go down as the BIGGEST FINANCIAL SWINDLE in world history, engineered by none other than Wall Street and Washington, DC.

    How does their scam work? It's a crafty "triple-swindle" just clever enough that most Americans won't even see it happen... until it's too late.

    The short of it is, every three days, these flim-flam artists use this strategy to secretly suck wealth out of your savings account.

    Nobody's immune.

    And if you don't do something now to protect yourself, you risk losing even more... starting with the next government-backed "swindle" event, scheduled to happen in an little as three days from right continued here.


    And finally today, back to Bill...

    Our old friend John Mauldin answered last week's note. Our point was that our children face a different world than we did. From what we can make out, it will be a tougher world. Everything was looking up with the baby boomers. Especially in the lives of the luckiest of them - your editor and John included. Is everything still going up? The US economy? The power and wealth of the US empire? And how about our children? John and I started out with nothing to lose. Our children can slip down as well as slide up. John has today's Daily Endnote for us. Please enjoy...

    It's More Than Half Full.

    Ok, Bill, let's review those wonderful days from whence we sprang, so fraught with the advantages of having nothing. So potent with opportunity. It was the middle of the '70s when we started our careers. Inflation was high and rising. The Soviets were seen as a major threat. Japan was beating our brains out and buying everything, even if nailed down (like Pebble Beach and New York skyscrapers). I had to borrow money at 15% (or more) to buy paper in order to meet customer demands for printing. And guess what? The banks got into trouble and called loans willy-nilly. (My bank even called my mother and threatened her to pay my loan - against written agreements - and she did. Evil sons of bitches. The more things change... And they delightedly did fail! Not that I hold a grudge.)

    There were multiple successive and deeper recessions. Gold was rising as the dollar was seen as a joke. Howard Ruff (a good friend to both of us when we were starting out!) and almost every newsletter writer were telling people to buy gold and freeze-dried food to protect themselves against a near certain economic, if not apocalyptic, catastrophe. Unemployment was high and rising for a decade.

    The correct answer to the question, "Where will the jobs come from?" back then was "I don't know, but they will." And it is the correct answer today.

    In 20 years, no one will want to come back to the halcyon days of 2005. Our kids (all 13 of them) are getting ready to live through what will be the most exciting period in human history. There will be a century's worth of change, measured by the standard of the 20th century, just in the next ten years, and then we will double that pace in the next ten after that. Medical miracles that will mean our kids and grandkids will live a lot longer than their dads, although I intend to be writing well into my 80s, like our mutual hero Richard Russell.

    There will be whole new industries developed in the US. How do I know that? Follow the money. The rest of the world spends a fraction on research and development that we do. Where do you go if you are looking for venture capital?

    Do I care if the Chinese and the "developing" worlds are far better off, relatively speaking, than the US in 20 years? Not a whit. Good on them. I hope they make discoveries and inventions and new businesses that benefit us all. But we are not going into some long dark night. We, and our kids, get to choose how we respond to what is the reality of the day.

    Our nation had to almost hit the wall in 1980 before a Volker could come along and force us to take the pain of recessions to beat back inflation. And we will have to come perilously close to the wall this time before we take action as a nation. Way to close for comfort. Maybe you are right, and we have a soft depression. I hope not, but even so, the world will be better, far better, in 20 years, with far more opportunities than today.

    It was not fun starting new businesses in the '70s and early '80s. But we did. I remember coming to Baltimore and being (literally) afraid to get out of the car to visit your offices in the slums. But that was what you could afford. A far cry from the chateau in Ouzilly.

    I lived in a small mobile home. Tiffani was born there, and we converted part of the kitchen to be her bedroom. (Yes, I was white "trailer trash.") But I got up every morning just like you did and killed as many alligators as I could. The rest had to wait till the next day.

    And that is the legacy our kids have. They know what it is to wade into the swamp every morning. Never quitting. In thinking about this, you may be the father I respect the most. You have raised your kids to be multi-lingual children of the world. What a work ethic. How did you get them to scrape window shutters at your chateaus? (I actually saw this, and my kids marveled.

    Thereafter I threatened to make them go live with you when they did not act right!)

    You have given your kids the opportunity to follow their dreams, even demanded that they do so. And such dreams they (and mine) have. Will they succeed? Who knows? But they will go at it with gusto, in a world with more opportunities than you and I ever imagined 40 years ago. And, oh boy, were we optimists back then. How else could we have done what we did? If we believed the rhetoric that the world was coming to an end, would we have dared to venture out?

    You cannot have raised your kids to be such bold adventurers without instilling in them a certain high level of optimism. I am going to out you, Mr. Bonner. You present yourself to your readers as a bona fide end of the world pessimist. But you are a really and truly a closet optimist. Your whole business empire (and what an empire it has become!) is based on finding people who are optimists, in the sense that they think they can actually get people to send them money for what they write. Which they do! Even if it is to read why the world will come to an end, which it thankfully never does.

    You are right in this: it is personal gumption that makes or breaks us. There are those who started out with less than we did (hard to imagine but true) and made a lot more. And there are those who started out with far more and made less. But there are very few who are happier than either of us. Or luckier.

    Our kids? It is not the times which dictate the man (or daughter!), but the response of the man which dictates his own time. Today has a brighter future for someone young than any other time in history, whether they are in the US or Brazil or China. They just have to seize it.

    And as our kids do just that, and as the millions of kids of those who read us do so, and the billions of kids who are just now getting ready to bust loose all work to achieve their dreams, the world is going to be a far more fantastic place. Smooth ride? Not a chance. We didn't get one, and in thinking through history, there have not been many smooth rides. Why should we think we will get any better? Our kids will just have to live with our generational (and individual) iniquities, government debt and all, and figure out how to master their own fates. But if I had a choice to take the '70s or today? In less than a heart's beat I choose today. And I bet you would too!


    John Mauldin
    for The Daily Reckoning
    The Daily Reckoning - Special Reports:

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    US Recession: By far the Weakest Recovery

    "THE GREAT AMERICAN RECOVERY RP-OFF" Brace yourself for what's about to go down as the BIGGEST FINANCIAL SWINDLE in world history.

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