I have a confession to make. It was grand seeing you all in Chicago, but to be honest, I have become a lousy traveler. I grump about restaurant food, I fret about missing my flights, and I don't sleep well in strange beds.
I particularly don't like being deprived of my books, papers, wire service feeds and charting computers. It's not like I am a technophobe – I do keep a small laptop about for e-mail and such. But a hotel connection is like a coffee straw compared to the veritable water main of data I am accustomed to at my desk in Baltimore.
And really, what it comes down to is pretty darned simple. I like the view of the lake from my window... the comfort of the chair in my library... the screams of my children... And quite frankly, I think I like my wife's cooking better than any gourmet chef's.
Six Items to Alarm You, and a Title XV Tip Off
It takes me days just to get my head on straight again. And so today you get no grand pronouncements or broad sweeping systemic analysis. I am still stoking up the furnace as it were, working through the papers and reports that accumulated while I was gone and perusing the charts.
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But I will share with you a few of the items in the stack that have immediately struck me as particularly relevant, rather odd, or just plain stupid.
The first item is out of Durham, N.C., where some local homeowners are showing a heck of a lot more spine than I've got these days.
Time for a Little Old-School Patriotism?
Here I am telling you fine folks to go along to get along. You can't stop Washington's latest attempts to re-inflate the real estate bubble, so you might as well just ride the damn thing out and pocket some gains.
But down in Durham, they've don't just stand around with their hands in their pockets when it comes to dealing with idiots. When the city scuttled its anti-speeding campaign for lack of funds, a local group began posting signs warning that their streets were now patrolled by "Angry Neighbors With Paint Guns."
The local police are outraged and claim that it is a crime to protect your pets and children in this fashion. They also warn that the signs themselves may be illegal roadside distractions. I suspect that they are more disturbed by the fact that speeding has all but stopped in these neighborhoods. And that requests have come in from across the country for similar signs.
As Jim has pointed out repeatedly in this space, our country was founded by folks with guts like that. Maybe if we took paintball guns to Washington? Not that I would actually suggest such a thing. That would probably also be "illegal" too. Get me in all sorts of trouble.
Fun to watch, though.
The Stimulus Isn't About Jobs – Really!
The next item comes out of ye old cesspool by the Potomac. It seems that House GOP Whip Eric Cantor has noticed that the $787 billion stimulus program he voted for doesn't seem to be putting anyone back to work.
Idiot.
The last thing in the world Washington wants is for the 10% (16%? More? Bryan Bottarelli points out that it may very well be 20%) who are unemployed to go back to work. Eventually? Sure, but not right away, that's for sure.
Just read between the lines in most any recent statement coming out of the Fed or the White House. Bernanke has said repeatedly that he can pump trillions into the mortgage market with impunity because he has a double-secret way to control inflation.
I'll tell you right here and now what it is: collapsed wage demand. I'm not guessing, sniping, or trying to pick a partisan fight. It's just history plain and simple. Reagan's crew did it when faced with a similar crisis. So did Clinton and Bush, when it was their turn to dig out of a hole.
Problem is, it doesn't work for but so long. History also tells us that each and every time, inflation has snapped back with a vengeance.
Fiscal Overdose
Which leads us to item three: Warren Buffett says that "enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects. For now, those side effects are invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself."
He's wrong, you know.
Inflation won't remain latent for anywhere near that long.
Progress Report on the Next Bubble
Item 4 is from the latest Fed survey on mortgages and banking, which notes that: "American banks are still cautious about lending."
Some 20% of institutions are still operating on "tightened lending standards" when it comes to primary mortgages. Seems that after seeing some 77 banks fail so far this year they don't want to lend to idiots and deadbeats anymore.
Don't be but so impressed. When you read on down a bit, you find that last quarter, 50% of the polled banks were thinking conservatively. And a year ago, it was more like 75%. So it appears that the majority of surviving banks are eagerly returning to their slatternly ways.
The report goes on to note with much relish that demand for prime mortgages actually rose in the January-March quarter, the first such posted increase since the Fed began to track this statistic back in April 2007.
See why I am not worried about July's small housing dip? Washington is racing to get real estate pumped up before inflation bites on the rear.
"If You Got Bad News, You Wanna Kick Them Blues..."
Item5: As per a group of scientists working in 30 cities in five countries, 90% of U.S. and Canadian currency is coated with a fine layer of cocaine.
But only 12% of Japanese and Chinese bills are similarly contaminated.
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There's something witty to be made of this. Perhaps a comment as to how 90% of the value of our fiat currency is really just a drug-fueled fantasy? Moving on...
Creepy
Item 6: I hate the greedy incompetent fat cats at Citigroup as much as anyone. Still, I get really queasy when I read stuff like this.
On Sunday, Federal Pay Czar Kenneth Feinberg told Reuters that he had broad and binding authority over outfits that had received Federal largesse. If he wants to claw back payouts, he will, regardless of his congressionally authorized brief.
Referring here to independent energy trader Andrew Hall's admittedly sizable invoice, Feinberg states: "Whether I have jurisdiction to decide his compensation or not, we will take a look and decide over the next few weeks."
Is this a demonstration of the power of a Maoist central government? Or cocaine-driven delusions of grandeur from handling too many soiled bills?
Hard to say for sure, but it certainly is creepy.
What Is Title XV?
One final note: One question I got asked a lot in Chicago is where I find a lot of this stuff. Quite honestly, Title XV demands that the government publicly post it – somewhere. But they certainly don't make it easy to find or understand.
I have been digging up and decoding this crap ever since I was a business owner, desperate to figure out Washington was up to – and more importantly, how I could get my piece of the action.
If you are interested in how you can capitalize on Title XV too, you should follow this link for more information.
Sincerely,
Adam
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